Minimizing the uncertainties related to the tunnels’ construction parameters is a crucial task that need to be addressed. Usually, the most uncertainties in underground structures are related to the unknown geological status. In order to probabilistically estimate these uncertainties, variety techniques have been developed, including the Markov method. This study is undertaken on a road tunnel in Iran in order to forecasting the geological status along its route using the Markov method. To access the Markov’s model input data, a number of questionnaires were distributed among the tunneling experts and eventually the mean values of the respondents were used in the model. In the next step, the results predicted by the Markov model were compared with the actual ones to evaluate the model performance. Finally, the Markov model was suggested as a powerful tool to predict tunnels’ path geology.

Keywords:Markov method; Tunneling; Time and cost uncertainties; Geological status.

Published: 1/6/2022

DOI:http://doi.org/10.24086/cocos2022/paper.664

https://conferences.cihanuniversity.edu.iq/index.php/COCOS/22/paper/view/664